The Big Mac Theory?

Sports Illustrated published this recent article based on a Baseball Prospectus "Secret Sauce" calculation for determining the top 5 teams with the highest likelihood to win playoff games.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/baseball/mlb/07/10/bb.preview.cubs/

The "Secret Sauce" (or as I will call it "The Big Mac Theory") is determined by calculating the following categories (taken directly from the article):

"a team's strikeout rate, or Equivalent K/9 (EqK9), adjusted for a team's league and ballpark; its quality of defense, or Fielding Runs Above Average (FRAA), an estimate of the runs a defense has saved or cost its pitchers relative to the league average; and its strength of closer, or Win Expectation Above Replacement (WXRL), which measures the wins the closer has saved versus what a replacement-level alternative would have done. In other words, teams that prevent the ball from going into play, catch it when it does and preserve late-inning leads are likely to excel in the playoffs."

Sounds like a waste of time to me....But wait....Baseball Prospectus might be on to something....after all..."The formula pointed to the surprising matchup between the White Sox and the Astros in the 2005 World Series (not to mention Chicago's title), in addition to the unlikely championships of the 1990 Reds and the 2002 Angels." So you successfully "guess" 4 teams in 16 years and you call that success?

The top 5 teams with a chance to win in the playoffs based on the Big Mac Theory at the half way point of 2007 are:
1. Red Sox
2. Cubs
3. Angels
4. Mets
5. Dodgers

While I do not doubt any of these teams can win it all, I could have just as easily pulled those same 5 teams from my mind based on the fact that they are all in the playoff hunt. But, if we are really using K/9, Team Fielding, and Closers as the three large buckets to calculate this stuff then how can teams like the Brewers, DBacks, or even Orioles not make this list? Look at the following MLB Team Stats:

Total Pitching Strikeouts:
1. Dodgers
2. Cubs
3. DBacks
4. Brewers
5. Orioles

Total Team Defense (Fielding Percentage)
1. Rockies
2. Twins
3. Orioles
4. Mets
5. Pirates

Most Team Saves
1. Brewers
2. DBacks
3. Red Sox
4. Tigers
5. Angels

Do you notice the Brewers, DBacks, and Orioles are in the top 5 of 2 lists? I know my calculations are extremely elementary compared to Baseball Prospectus. I mean, I don't really know how to adjust these numbers based on your home ballpark....but I also don't see how that affects strikeouts unless to calculate the # of hours that the shadow falls between the mound and the plate. Since the Cubs play lots of day games, maybe they got bumped up to #1. Or, I don't know how to calculate the number of times a team prevents a run from scoring other than using Fielding Percentage as a barometer for defense. I suppose I could watch BBTN each night and keep a tally of Web Gems for each team. I suppose that saves runs. But why not calculate the number of times a 400 pound man goes submarining into 2nd base to stretch a hit into a double? That has to be worth something....and the Prince Fielder led Brewers are leading the league 1-0 in that category.

Anyway, I am a Cubs fan, and I like to believe they have a chance to win in the playoffs...cause I know they are good enough. But not based on these categories. Sure, they do have a high K/9. But I could not find them in the top 10 of ANY defensive category. See below for their rankings:

11th - Fielding Percentage
22nd - Team Errors
30th (last) - Team Assists (although much higher in OF assists thanks to Soriano)
17th - Double Plays
28th - Caught Stealing
19th - Team Put Outs

I also don't have a ton of confidence in Ryan Dempster. The most shocking part missing in this category is if Baseball Prospectus is going to reward teams in their ranking for keeping a lead, then why don't they calculate holds or setup men success? As soon as you put Bob Howry or Scott Eyre into that calculation, I can guarantee you the Cubs plummet.

Nonetheless, I am a believer in the Cubs for the 2nd half. I am just afraid that this Big Mac Theory would be more of a curse than a blessing. After all, they've gotten 4 teams right in 16 years, but you think about the inverse of that....and they've gotten way more wrong than right.

I guess the point to all of this is that you can massage any numbers any way you like to eventually get to a result that you are seeking.

GO CUBS GO.