Japan and Jerry Seinfeld

Ok, so I've been in Japan for 4 days now and I can't help but continue to think about Jerry Seinfeld. Why, you may ask? Well it has to do with a certain utensil....or pair of utensils if you call it that.


Its my second trip to Japan in the last 12 months so I don't know why it hit me more the second time than the first. But seriously...I've had 10 meals so far this time in Japan, and on every single one of them, my only choice was chopsticks. Oh wait, I was given a spatula of sorts to take some food off of a grill in front of me. But everywhere I look its chopsticks, chopsticks, and more chopsticks. And every meal I can't help but remember Jerry Seinfeld. This is from episode 90 and a similar rendidtion is from his standup DVD, "I'm telling you for the last time".

I think the thing I admire most about the Chinese is that they're hanging in there with the chopsticks. Because, if you think about it, you know, they've seen the fork... by now. I'm sure they've seen the spoon, they're going, "Yeah, yeah, they're OK... We're going to stay with the sticks." I mean, I don't know how they've missed it: thousands of years ago, Chinese farmer gets up, has his breakfast with the chopsticks, goes out and works all day in the field with a shovel... Hello?... Shovel! Not going out there ploughing 40 acres with a couple of pool cues.

I know he's referring to the Chinese, but the Japanese are the same way. They refuse to give in to the fork or the spoon. Seriously, I've gotten much better at the sticks but I still struggle a lot. I watch colleagues 40+ years old that have been in Japan their whole life and they continuously drop noodles, rice, vegetables, fish, etc.... I can't help but wonder....fork oh fork where are you?

I have noticed one major positive to the chopsticks. It takes so long to use them that you realize you are full much earlier in Japan. Perhaps this is why their population is so ridiculously skinny. I thought it was from the large amounts of walking, but I think it may be even more related to the slow eating and smaller portions. I mean, it would take 2.5 hours to eat a normal American portion with chopsticks.

Oh well....I'm having a blast, but it takes all that is within me to not start laughing out loud each time Seinfeld's lines run through my head at EVERY meal. I actually started giggling last night at dinner. If so much wasn't lost in translation, I'd recite the lines to my Japanese colleagues....but they probably would not find it funny at all. After all, its tradition.

Heading to the land of Ichiro and the gyro-ball....

So my postings have been few and far between the last week. That's because I have been preparing to fly out to Japan tomorrow for a week of work. So, don't expect much else next week either....especially since I'll miss most of the Cubs games (considering they'll be playing around 8 or 9 am in Japan).

Its been a good couple of days for the Cubbies. Two in a row against our hated rival Cardinals. Zambrano and Lilly continue to dominante. 2-out RBIs are still coming. Soriano even got 3 hits last night to break out of a mini slump. Let's keep it up. A sweep today vs the Cardinals would just about eliminate them for good in 2007. Then we move on to Cincy where anything less than 2 wins will be a major disappointment.

In other news the Reds have taken 2 of 3 so far from the Brewers, but the Brewers just acquired Scott Linebrink from the Padres. That bullpen consisting of Villenueva, Wise, Linebrink, Turnbow, and Cordero is flat out disgusting and filthy. You better get to the Brewer starters (which is not easy either), cause I have a feeling from the 7th inning forward, the Brewers will not lose many games from here on out.

GO CUBS GO!

Take them to the woodshed!

It was quite the disappointing weekend losing 2 of 3 to the Diamondbacks and watching a no name pitcher (Petit?) completely stiffle our hitters. I am SO ready for Derrek Lee to be back in the lineup. We looked lethargic and bored over the weekend. But there is good news.

The Cubs will play 6 games at STL and CIN this week. Now a Cardinals game is never a sure thing, but this Cardinals team is flat out terrible. How they are even remotely close to .500 is beyond me. Kip Wells, Adam Wainwright, and Braden Looper. I look for the Cubs to break out of their mini slump against the Red Birds. Watch for Alfonso Soriano to get hot again on the road and to take Kip Wells deep.

The weekend series at Cincy might actually be slightly more difficult. The reason is because the Cubs will see Bronson Arroyo, Aaron Harang, and Matt Belisle. Arroyo and Harang are tough on the Cubs, but we have already taken Arroyo down twice this year. Nonetheless, the GAB should showcase at least a handful of HRs for Soriano, Ramirez, and Lee. BUT, Michael Barrett always owned the GAB, and we no longer have him. Time for Koyie Hill to become the new Cubs mashing Catcher at the GAB.

Any chance we could trade Jacque Jones for Junior before Friday? Probably no chance but it's fun to dream.

Let's beat up on the NL Central!

Go Cubs Go!

You Make the Call

In complete honor, respect, and credit to Thunder Matt's Saloon, one of my favorite blogs. Here is a knock off of a great Chip Wesley theme that he has going....

Chris Carpenter......................or.....................Chris Carpenter

.....

Who's idea was this anyway?

So my place of employment has been going all around campus remodeling the restrooms. It was well overdue as many of the bathrooms did not even have urinals. Many of them simply had 4 regular toilets. It was frustrating not having any urinals, and I figured there was a lot of wasted spaced, but I did not figure this would happen.

They have transformed these restrooms to now have two urinals and one toilet. The floor next to me has about 100 people on the floor....75 of which are probably male. While the 2 urinals get the #1's in and out quicker....the fact that only one toilet exists for 75 guys is just ridiculous. Seriously. Its not fun to wait in line for 18 minutes after lunch if you know what I mean.

These 2 urinals are spread so far apart that the designer must have been especially conscious of the annoying "peekers" that we all hate. But I say move them closer together, add a divider half wall, and squeeze one more toilet in there. PLEASE.

Oh, and I won't even get into the sink issue with the "auto hand sensing" technology that never works and the fact that you can not change the water temperature. Corporate America....gotta love it.

Can't win them all

So the Cubs finally lost last night to the lowly Giants 4-2. Barry Zito looked great, although any lefty does well against the Cubs. I realize the Cubs can not win all of their games, but I can't help but think this was one we should have won. Sean Marshall pitched really well. The Giants offense stinks. Bonds was not in the lineup.

Jason Kendall had a poor first game for the Cubs. Soriano had a runner pegged at the plate by 3 steps but Kendall could not handle the short hop. Later in the 8th inning, Kendall dropped a pop up that was catchable that would later lead to some runs. But to compound that in the 8th inning, Ohman walked in a run and Wuertz made a poor attempt at a check swing bunt-like ball down the first base line that he could have waited to see if it went foul. Instead he picked it up but had no throw.

I'd have to say we really gave this game away, but based on the recent streak, I am ok with that occassionally. Let's just make sure we get back on the winning train today. Zambrano vs. Cain.

Go Cubs Go!

Simply Beautiful

Another great Cubs win last night. Aramis Ramirez once again is in the position with 2 outs (this time 8th inning) with the chance to tie or take the lead and he does NOT disappoint us. Smokes a double off the wall in the left field corner. All of this got started with a 2-out hustle infield single by Theriot, and brilliant hit and run by Pinella with D. Lee at the plate. Simply beautiful baseball. I also especially loved squashing the Giants attempt at a squeeze play with the pitchout.

This has got to be the best stretch of Cubs baseball I have seen in my lifetime. I remember 1984 as a little boy. 1989 I have even more memories from and 1998 and 2003 are still fairly fresh in my mind. But, I can not remember such a hot stretch over such a long period as the recent run the Cubs have been on since early June. Matter of fact, it normally seems like the Cubs are the one team every year that never goes on a nice winning streak or stretch.

Honestly, I was glad to see Dusty Baker go, but in my mind I did not think he was as poor of a manager as the Cubs faithful made him out to be. But I have changed my mind. If Baker were still coaching this season, I am convinced we would never have seen the shots in the arm of guys like Theriot, Fontenot, Hill, Pie, Pagan. I can now see that Baker was stubborn and extremely reluctant to look at young guys. Lou Pinella has been amazing at that and I applaud his efforts thus far. I was an early Pinella skeptic, but I have come around on him.

Acquiring Jason Kendall seems like a good move. Just yesterday I was telling a buddy that it would be really nice to get any offensive output out of the catcher position. Both Hill and Bowen had been good defensively but doing nothing at the plate. Hill must have heard my words or knew Kendall was coming because he smoked a HR early in the game last night. That put a smile on my face. I know Kendall is batting near .220 right now and making $13M a year, but over the years he's been both a great contact hitter and a solid defensive catcher. He has leadership and playoff experience and I think it was the right move. Bowen had no value in my mind and Blevins was probably a necessary casualty. I think Kendall will fit in nicely and a change of scenery might just be what he needs.

Go Cubs Go!

What a weekend!

I have to be completely honest. I was afraid for some reason that the Cubs would stumble out of the gate in the second half, dig a hole of about 7-8 games back and then have to claw their way back all second half in an attempt to make the playoffs.

I apologize.

This team came out on fire this past weekend. Sure, the Astros gave us game 1 with their 4 errors, but let's not forget that Zambrano only needed 1 run to win that game anyway. It is great to see him pitching like the top pitcher that he is. If we could only figure out how to get him going in April and May, he'd win 25-27 games each year. I don't even want to think about him not being in a Cubs uniform next year, but I know eventually I am going to have to come to grips with it.

On Saturday, the Lilly vs Oswalt matchup I had little confidence in. First, its Roy Oswalt, a calculating, devious little pitcher....exactly the type of guy that keeps aggressive hitters like the Cubs in check. Second, the Astros were shutout on Friday, so I figured even their lineup was due to break out. After 3 innings of no hit ball by Oswalt and the Cubs down 1-0, it was sure looking that way. But wow....what I watched happen in the 4th, 5th, and 6th innings of that game can only be described as a day dream. It had everything. In the 4th, Lee and Ramirez delivered clutch hits again and the Astros gave us yet another free run on an error by Ausmus. In the 5th, it started as a poor inning with Bowen and Lilly making quick outs. But then Soriano reached on a single, Izturis (stil no idea why he was batting second) walked as did Lee. Ramirez yet again delivered a clutch 2 RBI single. All of this with 2 outs....so refreshing. But it was the 6th inning that just made me as giddy as I could be. Singles by Derosa and Jones, followed by another awful at bat by Bowen (K). Runners were on 1st and 3rd, and I really figured Lilly would bunt Jones to 2nd to stay out of the double play and then Soriano would be intentionally walked and Izturis would have to try to be a hero. BUT, on the first pitch, Ted Lilly smoked a hard single to right field. Derosa scored and runners were on 1st and 2nd....and finally Soriano was at bat with a chance to knock Oswalt out of the game and deliver a memorable hit at Wrigley Field. It didn't take long as Soriano absolutely blasted a shot into the left field bleachers.... 9-1 Cubs at that point, Oswalt out of the game with 8 ERs (his highest ER total EVER). I didn't even really need to watch anymore of the game....I just couldn't wipe that smile off my face....what a great win.

I missed Sunday's game as I spent the day on the lake. But the recap makes it look like a great come from behind win. Marquis sucks again (shocker). He puts us down 5-0 in the 2nd. We score 6 runs to make it 6-5, but then Marquis gives up yet another run....what a momentum killer. But wonder twin #1 (Ryan Theriot) delivers the game winning HR in the 4th inning as the Cubs bullpen is remarkable and they take home a 7-6 game winning sweep of the hateable Astros.

The Cubs bullpen pitched 8 1/3 inning this weekend and only gave up 2 runs. Both of those came in the 9th on Saturday during what I call "mop up time". It was 9-1 and Wuertz gave up 2 making it 9-3. Great job by the bullpen....they gave up ZERO meaningful runs and definitely won us the game on Sunday.

Sure, the Brewers won 2 out of 3 this weekend (both wins being the 1 run affair), but at least the Cardinals lost 2 of 3 and we distanced ourselves from them a bit more. 3.5 games out....the entire second half to go. I like our chances.

The only bad thing about this recent Cubs streak and the fact that we are inching toward the division lead, is that ALL of the Cubs bandwagon fans are starting to come out much as they did in 2003. I am finding Cubs fans that I never knew existed. Fans that couldn't tell you more than 3 guys in the starting lineup (Lee, Ramirez, and Soriano), or couldn't tell you a single starting pitcher other than Zambrano. Man I hate those fans. Stay away, you embarrass us. FYI, the names are pronounced "TEAR-E-O" and Mike Fontenot has a silent T at the end....at least act like you know something.

The Big Mac Theory?

Sports Illustrated published this recent article based on a Baseball Prospectus "Secret Sauce" calculation for determining the top 5 teams with the highest likelihood to win playoff games.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/baseball/mlb/07/10/bb.preview.cubs/

The "Secret Sauce" (or as I will call it "The Big Mac Theory") is determined by calculating the following categories (taken directly from the article):

"a team's strikeout rate, or Equivalent K/9 (EqK9), adjusted for a team's league and ballpark; its quality of defense, or Fielding Runs Above Average (FRAA), an estimate of the runs a defense has saved or cost its pitchers relative to the league average; and its strength of closer, or Win Expectation Above Replacement (WXRL), which measures the wins the closer has saved versus what a replacement-level alternative would have done. In other words, teams that prevent the ball from going into play, catch it when it does and preserve late-inning leads are likely to excel in the playoffs."

Sounds like a waste of time to me....But wait....Baseball Prospectus might be on to something....after all..."The formula pointed to the surprising matchup between the White Sox and the Astros in the 2005 World Series (not to mention Chicago's title), in addition to the unlikely championships of the 1990 Reds and the 2002 Angels." So you successfully "guess" 4 teams in 16 years and you call that success?

The top 5 teams with a chance to win in the playoffs based on the Big Mac Theory at the half way point of 2007 are:
1. Red Sox
2. Cubs
3. Angels
4. Mets
5. Dodgers

While I do not doubt any of these teams can win it all, I could have just as easily pulled those same 5 teams from my mind based on the fact that they are all in the playoff hunt. But, if we are really using K/9, Team Fielding, and Closers as the three large buckets to calculate this stuff then how can teams like the Brewers, DBacks, or even Orioles not make this list? Look at the following MLB Team Stats:

Total Pitching Strikeouts:
1. Dodgers
2. Cubs
3. DBacks
4. Brewers
5. Orioles

Total Team Defense (Fielding Percentage)
1. Rockies
2. Twins
3. Orioles
4. Mets
5. Pirates

Most Team Saves
1. Brewers
2. DBacks
3. Red Sox
4. Tigers
5. Angels

Do you notice the Brewers, DBacks, and Orioles are in the top 5 of 2 lists? I know my calculations are extremely elementary compared to Baseball Prospectus. I mean, I don't really know how to adjust these numbers based on your home ballpark....but I also don't see how that affects strikeouts unless to calculate the # of hours that the shadow falls between the mound and the plate. Since the Cubs play lots of day games, maybe they got bumped up to #1. Or, I don't know how to calculate the number of times a team prevents a run from scoring other than using Fielding Percentage as a barometer for defense. I suppose I could watch BBTN each night and keep a tally of Web Gems for each team. I suppose that saves runs. But why not calculate the number of times a 400 pound man goes submarining into 2nd base to stretch a hit into a double? That has to be worth something....and the Prince Fielder led Brewers are leading the league 1-0 in that category.

Anyway, I am a Cubs fan, and I like to believe they have a chance to win in the playoffs...cause I know they are good enough. But not based on these categories. Sure, they do have a high K/9. But I could not find them in the top 10 of ANY defensive category. See below for their rankings:

11th - Fielding Percentage
22nd - Team Errors
30th (last) - Team Assists (although much higher in OF assists thanks to Soriano)
17th - Double Plays
28th - Caught Stealing
19th - Team Put Outs

I also don't have a ton of confidence in Ryan Dempster. The most shocking part missing in this category is if Baseball Prospectus is going to reward teams in their ranking for keeping a lead, then why don't they calculate holds or setup men success? As soon as you put Bob Howry or Scott Eyre into that calculation, I can guarantee you the Cubs plummet.

Nonetheless, I am a believer in the Cubs for the 2nd half. I am just afraid that this Big Mac Theory would be more of a curse than a blessing. After all, they've gotten 4 teams right in 16 years, but you think about the inverse of that....and they've gotten way more wrong than right.

I guess the point to all of this is that you can massage any numbers any way you like to eventually get to a result that you are seeking.

GO CUBS GO.

LaRussa stuck it in all of our Pujols

I never thought I'd see the day in which you could pinch hit Albert Pujols for Orlando Hudson or Aaron Rowand and you didn't take it. Wow, what might have been. Thanks a lot LaRussa. The NL Champs have you to blame for a poorly managed All Star Game. Not just the Pujols debacle (although I have no idea how you never play the best player in the game), but I am too tired to chronicle all the mistakes tonight....maybe tomorrow.

ESPN the butcher

I almost forgot.....

Can ESPN possibly butcher anything else? Seriously. First they got outside of their speciality and started making awful movies about Bob Knight, Nascar, and the Yankees. Reality shows like Dream Job and Poker coverage starting cutting into my Baseball Tonight and NFL Live time. Next, they took Monday Night Football and made it a complete joke in one season while NBC transformed Sunday Night Football into one of the greatest weekly sporting events. Then, last night, I could not have imagined a worse broadcast of the homerun derby. Seems to me that just about every camera shot completely lost the ball. Was it just me? I know the sun was tricky in San Fran, but come on....these are professionals. You can't tell me they weren't able to already know how the sun would affect things. Add that with Joe Morgan (self explanatory but to see more go to: FireJoeMorgan.com) and the pathetic coverage by Ravech, Phillips, and Kruk back in Bristol (seriously, do we really need in-depth analysis coverage of something so trivial as the homerun derby?). Oh, and I really really really do NOT care who each of you picked to win the derby. ....very pathetic ESPN. Maybe this is why Dan left.

Jinx or Springboard?

In 2005, Bobby Abreu had 18 HRs coming into the HR Derby before absolutely putting on a clinic in the derby. He went into a complete tailspin after that by only hitting 6 HRs in the second half and never really getting his form back after struggling in 2006 and so far in 2007.

Last year, Ryan Howard won the derby and kept up an amazing pace to hit 30 HRs in the second half.

So will Vlad by winning the 2007 HR Derby emulate Abreu or Howard. I would guess this will be more of a springboard for him. He only has 14 HRs currently which is very low for him. I imagine he'll hit close to 20 HRs in the second half to finish with 30-35 for the season.

But the bigger question is why does the HR Derby have to last so freaking long? I blame ESPN for dragging that thing out last night. It was painful how slow it moved. I found myself thoroughly bored after the first round. I think something needs to change to spice the derby up a bit. I am still trying to figure out what that is. I really appreciate the charitable contributions by State Farm and all, but that really has no impact on the viewers and fans. What can we do to make this interesting again....or is it reaching the Dunk Contest status in the NBA in that all hope is lost?

Here's hoping for a great All Star game tonight and an NL win for once!