One of the famous rules in baseball is "Never make the 1st nor 3rd out at third base". I think for the most part all baseball fans know this rule and agree with it. But I ask the question...."Why make any out at 3rd base?" Is taking a calculated risk trying to attempt to reach 3rd base with one out really worth it? Especially considering the fact that you should already have 2nd base safely? I got to thinking about this the last two nights based on events in the Cubs/Rangers series. On Tuesday, with 1-out, Alfonso Soriano tried to steal third base with Derrek Lee at the plate. He was thrown out, essentially removing the Cubs chances of any runs that inning. On Wednesday, Gerald Laird of the Rangers did the exact same thing with Kenny Lofton at the plate...and HE IS A CATCHER! My cousin and I argued online about it. He seemed to think its worth the calculated risk at times. I tend to lean the other way, preferring to NOT steal 3rd base unless you have the worlds greatest jump on the pitcher and can assure being safe. So...I decided to research it and I found a few things.
First, researching a custom stat like all time success rate of stealing third base is next to impossible unless you have access to Stats, Inc. It appears like only major conglomerates of media have that access.
Second, being on 2nd base is still considered scoring position. The players that "normally" make an out at 3rd base trying to steal or extend a double to triple are very fast runners. Very rarely would you ever see Ron Cey attempt to turn a double to a triple nor steal 3rd base. Therefore, a large percentage of the time, those same runners would score from second base on a single. Wouldn't you want to give 2 batters the chance to knock you in from 2nd base vs the good chance of making an out at 3B?
While I could not find the all time success/failure rate of stealing 3rd base, I did find this OVERWHELMING statistic thanks to an article at BaseballProspectus.com at the following link. I have to trust their research is accurate.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2607
In 2003, run expectation turned out as it appears below. I would argue that since there are so many games and situations every year, that these statistics would mimic almost any year. I also found the same table for the 2000 season and the combined seasons of 1998-2000, and the numbers only vary by hundredths or thousandths.
Runner on 2nd base and 1 out: .7125
Runner on 3rd base and 1 out: 1.0303
Bases empty and 2 outs: .1083
This means that a runner on 2nd base with one out is worth .7125 runs. Getting to 3rd successfully without making the out is worth 1.0303 (an increase of .3178). But, by making the second out at 3rd base and potentially leaving the bases empty yields a .1083 result (a decrease of .6042). Therefore, the loss is about twice the gain in the risk. I would say this is not worth the risk in almost all situations. Plus, a .7125 run expectation sounds pretty good to me.
Michael Wolverton of ESPN adds much to this debate at:
http://espn.go.com/mlb/columns/bp/1202793.html
His lengthy research results in the following comment:
This analysis suggests that the price the offense pays for a caught stealing is three times the benefit they get from a successful steal. Another way of looking at it is that in today's game, you need three successful steals for each caught stealing (a 75 percent stolen-base rate) just to break even.
I would go as far to argue that a lot of his research has to deal with runners trying to steal from first to second (as there are many more attempts as such and because it is much more beneficial to get a runner from 1st to 2nd than it is from 2nd to 3rd)....just look at the numbers from the run expectation table in the links. So while I do not have the stats to calculate it, I would strongly argue that the risk is higher than the Wolverton stat when dealing with trying to steal from 2nd to 3rd....as a player is already in scoring position to begin with. Perhaps its 80%-85% just to break even. I am guessing here though.
One final note that Baseball Prospectus makes that is worth mentioning as a Cubs fan. Lou Pinella seems to always rank near the top of the league in stolen base success percentage (read the link for more)...so maybe he does have a knack for it. Of his 17 seasons coaching, his team has ranked in the top 5 in baseball 10 times and only been outside the top 10 once. I am not saying never steal 3rd base....I am just saying you better darn well make it or I will be screaming at you from my couch!
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2 comments:
I agree with you to a point. Of course it always depends on the situation and each game is different. Earlier in the Twins/Mets series (I think Tuesday night's game) Torii was on first and with no outs and decided to try and make it to third on a single by Cirillo to Beltran. The game was 0-0 at this point. Torii's aggressive baserunning forced a bad throw from Beltran and he went on to score on the error. This opened up the whole inning and the Twins ended up scoring 5 runs. That's about 2-3 more runs than they ever need when Santana is pitching.
I guess on a personal level, I'm much more conservative in trying to steal a base than in trying to extend a single to a double or a double to a triple. Sometimes good things happen when you force the other team to make a play.
The 3:1 ratio of an out at 3rd base vs.a successful steal is suspect because the numbers are not statistically different. Please consider this; because a runner on 2nd is not held as closely to the bag as a runner on 1st, the distance to 3rd is shorter, which should increase chances of success. An errant throw from the catcher will result in a run without the 2/3 probability of the batter making an out (in the best of conditions). I addition, a runner on third has a greater chance of scoring. Examples include passed ball,sac fly, fielders error, slow roller to right side of infield,and balk.....opportunities not available to the runner on 2nd. By my own observations, not statistically verified, passed balls and wild pitches occur more frequently when the runner is on 3rd.....pitcher anxiety?
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