2007 ALDS Playoff Predictions

Here it goes folks, my 2007 AL Playoff Predictions:

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim vs Boston Red Sox



Theme: Past Performance Really Matters
Season Series: BOS won 6 - 4 (7 @ Fenway, 3 @ Anaheim)
Key Player: John Lackey (LAA SP)

Analysis:

In this series, I really do think that the history between these 2 teams in 2007 will matter. But I do think the history I am talking about goes even deeper than just the 6-4 record that the Red Sox own vs the Angels this year.

John Lackey is downright awful against the Red Sox, especially at Fenway. Lackey is 1-4 lifetime at Fenway. In his last 11 innings at Fenway he has given up 19 ERs (15.5 ERA). Lackey is set to pitch game 1 at Fenway and quite possibly game 5 if necessary at Fenway. That spells disaster for the Angels. On top of the Fenway problems, look at these statistics of some Red Sox hitters vs Lackey:

Manny Ramirez: .435 BA, 4HR, 11RBI, in 23 ABs
David Ortiz: .385 BA
JD Drew: .455 BA
Kevin Youkilis: .300 BA
Dustin Pedroia: .333 BA

John Lackey will be pitching 2 games vs BOS in this series, and I think they will both be losses...especially since his opponent in both is likely Josh Beckett. Let's look at his splits vs the Angels. Beckett is a career 2-0 vs the Angels with a 2.16 ERA. He has done well against the big LAA batters:

Vlad Guererro: .217 BA
Orlando Cabrera: .281 BA
Garrett Anderson: .400 BA (limited ABs)
Gary Matthews Jr: .167 BA
Chone Figgins: .125 BA

Josh Beckett will easily defeat John Lackey in 1 or more games and the Red Sox will not have a problem winning at least one other game. Analysts love to mention how tough the starting rotation is for the Angels but I don't see it. Lackey is solid but we've mentioned his problems against Boston. Kelvim Escobar, I don't see him doing well here. I just don't care for him much. Jered Weaver? No experience, I again, don't put much faith in him. The Red Sox can roll out any combination of Beckett, DiceK, Schilling, Wakefield, Lester, and the list keeps going. Whomever does not start is sure to be a big part of middle relief when needed. I think Boston has a huge advantage with their pitching. But the Angels are scrappy and have a lot of speed. The only way the Angels compete is to get superman performances from Lackey, Escobar, and Weaver and to get guys on base early and terrorize the base paths. It could happen, but I say it won't.

Prediction: Red Sox win in 4 games.







New York Yankess vs Cleveland Indians




Theme: Ignore the Numbers
Season Series: NYY won 6 - 0
Key Player: Fausto Carmona (CLE SP)

Analysis:

In a complete 180 degree turn from my first playoff matchup, I am going to tell you to look away from the numbers here. There is a lot of information pointing to the Yankees to win easily. This series with the extra rest is going to be decided based on the performances of Chien Ming Wang, Andy Pettitte, C.C. Sabathia, and Fausto Carmona. Let's look at some numbers.

First of all, the Yankees won all 6 regular season matchups, but did not face Sabathia this year. That is an advantage for the Indians. Chien Ming Wang is 1-1 in his career vs. the Indians. He had one poor outing and one dominant outing. Among active Indians players, they combine for a .228 BA against Wang. The Yankees are 10-4 on the road this year when Wang starts the game. Wang will start Game 1 on the road and likely Game 4 at Yankee Stadium.

Andy Pettitte is 1-0 with a 2.45 ERA against the Indians this year. Active Indian players bat .233 vs Pettitte in their careers. In 135 plate appearances, only 5 times have active Indian players gotten an extra base hit off him with no homeruns. Johnny Peralta is the only Indian to have shown any remote success off of Pettitte. The Yankees are 10-9 on the road in games Pettitte has started.

Wang and Pettitte will pitch 4 of the 5 games if necessary and the numbers look dominant.

On the other side of the field, C.C. Sabathia and Fausto Carmona will be trying to take down the Evil Empire. Sabathia posts a .277 BA against active Yankees in his career with Jeter hitting .545 and A-Rod hitting .412. The Indians are 14-5 at home when C.C. takes the mound.

Carmona is 0-2 against the Yankees this year with a 4.15 ERA in the two outings. He was 19-8 on the season, 2 of those losses to the Yankees. The Yankee active players post a .268 BA against Carmona and again Jeter has done the best with Melky Cabrera also showing good numbers. A-Rod however has hit a measley .143 vs Carmona. The Indians are 13-4 at home when Carmona pitches. It is quite possible Carmona will pitch both Game 2 and Game 5 at home.

The numbers are over whelmingly in the Yankees favor. I think the Yankees have the better bullpen, more experience, and have been blazing hot in the second half. But deep down inside I feel the Indians to get this done. If for nothing else because the numbers look so stacked against them. I like Sabathia a lot in this series and if Carmona can shake the jitters of the prime time matchup, I see the Indians squeaking out a 5 game win.

Prediction: Indians win in 5 games.




ALCS Early Prediction: I'll take the Red Sox to beat the Indians in 6 games. If that matchup occurs I'll break down the specific reasons later....and if that matchup doesn't occur, I'll break down whatever the matchup is.