Week 7 Recap and Week 8 Picks

Freshly back from a weeks vacation in burning San Diego, just in time for this week's picks. I finished week 7 at .500, going 7-7. My winners last week included Buf, Dal, NE, Ten, KC, Cin, and Den, including both my lock picks (NE and Dal).

I sit at 49-48-6 on the season.

Week 8 picks:

STL +3
CHI -5
CAR +7.5
NYG -9.5
TEN -6.5
PHI -1
CIN +4
BUF +3
SD -9 **
JAC +4
NO -2 **
NE -15.5
DEN -3

** Two-team parlay locks.

Week 6 Recap and Week 7 Picks

A solid Week 6 for me (7-4-2). Puts me above .500 for the season at 42-41-6.
CIN -3
JAC -6.5
CLE -4
CHI -4
PHI -3
STL +10
TEN +3
WAS +3
ARI -4
NE -6 **
SD -9.5 **
NO +7
NYG -3

** Two-team parlay locks

Let's keep the solid picks going with Week 7:
WAS -7.5
NO -7.5
BUF +3
DAL -9.5**
NE -16.5**
SF +9.5
TB +2.5
TEN -1
KC +3
CIN -6
PHI -6
STL +8.5
DEN +4
JAC +3.5

** Two-team parlay locks

How I feel about sports right now...

Baseball - sucks
Nobody wants to watch expansion teams in the playoffs....not even residents of those cities (I'm looking at you Phoenix). Boston and Cleveland...well, it could be worse or better. I am indifferent.

Football - blah
Middle of the season, very little excitement in the league unless you are a Dallas or New England fan (both of whom I despise). Sure, the Colts are undefeated, but with as good as they've been, we're spoiled here in Indy and are simply awaiting playoff time until things get interesting again.
Potential fun teams such as New Orleans, Chicago, Philadelphia have all been disappointing. There is an identity crisis among young potential superstars (where is Reggie Bush, LT, Carson Palmer?) I know everyone is a little tired of Manning on every commericial, even some of us Colts fans.

Hockey - are you kidding me? It's interesting in HD for about 30 seconds

Basketball - first of all I hate the NBA and don't even enjoy the regular season, why would I care about the preseason. I do enjoy College Basketball, so I am holding out for those preseason tourneys and then counting the days until March Madness and Spring Training, at which point I will be in a better mood.

I have been at a loss as to what to do with my free time at night this past week. Its been a while since I had to be so in tune with the Cubs so late in the season...so I am in the adjustment phase right now that I am normally in during August.

Anyway, don't expect tons of blogs from me upcoming...maybe I'll muster up one a week.

Week6 NFL Picks

I have to admit, I am tired of making these pick things, but I committed to seeing how good I could do during an entire season, so here it goes, week 6 picks, a little more streamlined....Now you only get my pick and the line....not the opponent. Do your own research.

CIN -3
JAC -6.5
CLE -4
CHI -4
PHI -3
STL +10
TEN +3
WAS +3
ARI -4
NE -6 **
SD -9.5 **
NO +7
NYG -3

** Two-team parlay locks

Week 5 Recap

My first WINNING Week, going 9-5 and also snagging the two team parlay pick.
On the season, I am nearing .500 at 35-37-4.

NO (-3) vs CAR
KC (+2.5) vs JAC
WAS (-3)** vs DET
TEN (-8) vs ATL
MIA (+5.5) @ HOU
PIT (-6) vs SEA
NE (-16)** vs CLE
STL (+3.5) vs ARI
NYG (-3) vs NYJ
TB (+10) @ IND
SD (+1) @ DEN
BAL (-3) @ SF
CHI (+3.5) @ GB
BUF (+10) vs DAL

**Two-team parlay pick

Week 5 NFL Picks

I feel it this week...I am feeling a winning record. I have to have a winning record in some week don't I?

NO (-3) vs CAR
KC (+2.5) vs JAC
WAS (-3)** vs DET
TEN (-8) vs ATL
MIA (+5.5) @ HOU
PIT (-6) vs SEA
NE (-16)** vs CLE
STL (+3.5) vs ARI
NYG (-3) vs NYJ
TB (+10) @ IND
SD (+1) @ DEN
BAL (-3) @ SF
CHI (+3.5) @ GB
BUF (+10) vs DAL

**Two-team parlay pick

Sorry Lou, I disagreed

Yes Lou, you are awesome, but I disagreed the minute you made the decision last night.

Carlos Zambrano, game 1 NLDS, as locked in as I have seen him all year. 85 pitches through 6 innings and Sweet Lou pulls him. Not for a pinch hitter, not for a pinch runner, flat out pulls him. Here is a list of Z's pitch count in every game this season...do you notice something really odd. Only once did he throw less than 85 pitches and it was in a 12-1 blowout win against the Giants.

I immediately disagreed. The TBS analysts said it was because Z is scheduled to pitch in Game 4 on short rest. Lou reiterated that in the post game press conference. I am sorry, but this is the playoffs. If you don't play to win the current game you are in, then are you not playing playoff baseball. Who knows what tomorrow will bring? Just worry about today. Maybe Lou should watch this.

I know Carlos Marmol, Bob Howry, and the rest of the bullpen has been outstanding, but honestly, I don't think I would have pulled Zambrano for anyone after only 85 pitches the way he was going....not even Josh Beckett. And I said that before Marmol gave up any runs. I am not just being a cynic with hindsight. Why mess with a good thing? Can you really sit there and tell me that 85 pitches versus 105 pitches is going to make a difference in his short rest start on Sunday? Cause I don't buy it. Either Z will be good on short rest or not. I think he only did it once this year, and the results weren't great. It's the playoffs, you don't hold back. Let's just hope we have a game 4.

Nonetheless, I am done ranting about the decision. I disagreed with it, but I'll move on. Let's get them tonight. It's as important of a game as we'll have. Have no fear, Ted Lilly is primed and ready.

GO CUBS GO!

2007 NLDS Predictions

Colorado Rockies vs Philadelphia Phillies



Theme: Runs Wild!
Season Series: COL won 4 - 3
Key Player(s): The Mashers (Rollins, Utley, Burrell, Howard vs Tulowitzki, Helton, Holliday, Atkins)

Analysis:

Who really knows in this series? Probably the most difficult for me to predict of the 4 DS series. Here are two teams that absolutely mash the ball in ballparks that see incredible amounts of offense. I know the humidor "reduces offense" in Coors but I don't buy it. I think its more of the fact that Colorado has finally staffed their rotation with guys who can pitch well in that environment. Philadelphia? Well, Citizen's Bank Park is just not fair. So its the obvious thing to say that this series will be decided by offense or lack there of. Both teams have been known to go into dry spells, but I can not think of two hotter teams in baseball over the past 30 days. Both are extremely scary and capable of winning it all. When it's all said and done, I think the slight edge in this series goes to the Phillies and here is why:

1. They have 3 home games. The Phillies are 47-34 at home while the Rockies are 39-42 on the road.

2. Jeff Francis is awful against the Phillies and he could face them in Game 1 and Game 5. Francis was a stellar 17-9 with 4.22 ERA in 2007. But he is 0-1 vs the Phillies this year with a 15.12 ERA in 8+ innings. The single game he pitched at Citizen's Bank Park, he was lit up for a 21.60 ERA. Active Phillies players bat a combined .451 against Francis in their careers, including Rollins at .556, Rowand at .750, and Howard at .400. The only significant player Francis has had success against is Chase Utley (.200 BA).

3. Cole Hamels. This kid is electric and he appears to be healthy again. He did not face the Rockies this year and I think that will benefit him. His changeup is among the best in the league and could even give left handed hitters like Helton and Hawpe trouble.

4. Starting Rotations - Francis and Hamels could be considered equal (although we've laid out Francis' struggles in #2. After the game 1 the pitching matchups will likely be: Jimenez vs Kendrick, Fogg vs Moyer, and Morales vs Lohse...or some combination thereof. I think I would take the 3 Phillies starters over the 3 Rockie starters. But watch Ubaldo Jimenez, that kid is nasty. If the Rockies are down 2-1, I'd bet Francis comes out for Game 4 on short rest.

5. I like the Phillies bullpen currently. Brett Myers and Tom Gordon have been worked really hard in September, but they have been brilliant. The Rockies bullpen is strong as well, but I like the veterans in the Phillies bullpen to get it down. However, in their careers, Todd Helton (.444 BA) and Garrett Atkins (.429 BA) have had a ton of success against Brett Myers. So maybe the Rockies can steal a game late. They proved it against Hoffman, they can surely get to Myers.

Prediction: Phillies win in 5 games





Chicago Cubs vs Arizona Diamondbacks




Theme: The Mirage Disappears
Season Series: ARI won 4 - 2
Key Player(s): Alfonso Soriano

Analysis:

And finally to the series that I will be glued to at every minute. There is no hiding that I am a die hard Cubs fan and therefore perhaps my prediction will be biased in their favor...but there are all kinds of numbers we have to look at.

The DBacks were outscored this year, yet somehow they are 18 games over .500. The only team that was ever outscored in a season and actually won a playoff game was the 1987 Twins, and they won the World Series. The DBacks have done it with solid pitching and close games all year. Then they occasionally get blown out to hurt their run differential. Well I think the mask is coming off, the mirage is disappearing, these DBacks are going down. The DBacks have the worst offense in the playoffs, sporting a .250 BA and 712 runs scored. The Cubs in comparison batted .271 and scored 752 runs. Both teams roll out phenomenal pitching staffs, both starters and bullpens. The Cubs have a 4.04 ERA compared to the DBacks at 4.13 ERA. Marmol, Howry, Wood, and Dempster are quite formidable as is Pena, Lyon, and Valverde.

Game 1 will start tonight with Carlos Zambrano vs Brandon Webb. Really is a toss up. Which Zambrano will show up? Will Webb be the extremely dominant pitcher that he showed in July and August with that incredible scoreless inning streak? Or will he be hittable as he was in the last few weeks. I think he is tired and the Cubs bats will get to him. Cubs players hit a combined .235 vs Webb but that should increase. Carlos Zambrano? Well thankfully he is on the road in which he displayed a 12-4 mark this year with a 3.06 ERA. Compare that with a 6-9, 4.96 ERA at home and its obvious he is more comfortable away from Wrigley. The DBacks do have a combined .281 BA against Carlos, but that is mostly due to Chad Tracy hitting .800 against him (and he is on the DL).

Game 2 will feature Ted Lilly vs Doug Davis. At first glance I sigh cause it feels like Doug Davis has been a Cub killer. But the numbers don't really support that. Alfonso Soriano bats .357 against Davis, Matt Murton .400, and Ryan Theriot .667. Lee and Ramirez have not had as much success and perhaps that will hurt us. Meanwhile, Ted Lilly has perhaps been the Cubs MVP this year. He is about as steady as it comes sporting almost identical numbers at home and on the road. DBacks hitters only muster a .217 BA against him in their careers. Eric Byrnes is the only one with decent numbers at .286 and 1 HR.

Game 3 is where I actually think this series will ultimately be decided. Its most likely Rich Hill vs. Livan Hernandez. Livan is a big game pitcher and that is concerning, but lets run through his numbers for this series. In his career against current Cub hitters in their careers, the Cubs bat .309 against him (and that includes our pitching staff as hitters). Floyd (.341), Kendall (.355), Ramirez (.385), DeRosa (.385), Ward (.462) have all lit Livan up. Look for him to make an early exit in Game 3. Rich Hill has been good of late and I hope that continues. DBack hitters are hitting him for only .226 but Jackson, Byrnes, and Hudson all post +.300 BAs against him. If Hill falters, watch for a quick hook with Jason Marquis in the wings. If for nothing else, the DBacks will have some righties in the lineup that Marquis will be able to take advantage of. Marquis has really been faltering down the stretch, but he came up huge all year in tough situations. DBack hitters fare really poorly against Marquis in their careers at a dismal .189 mark.

Game 4 currently lists Zambrano vs Owings. The Cubs win that game as long as they don't pitch to Owings - .333 BA in 60 ABs with 4 HRs. Zambrano vs Owings...now that could be a hitting pitcher's clinic. Webb could go on short rest and surely will if the DBacks find themselves down 2-1. I could also see the Cubs going with Jason Marquis in Game 4 if they are up 2-1 with a quick hook. If Marquis were to do well, the Cubs could be setup nicely for the NLCS with Zambrano and Lilly starting it off.

Ultimately, I can not really find any numbers to support the DBacks having an edge with the exception that they were the best team in the NL in 2007 and they have home field advantage....if you want to call it that. The Cubs get more support in Arizona than anywhere not named Milwaukee or Cincinnati. I picked Alfonso Soriano to be a key player. There are not any specific numbers, but the guy is smoking hot right now and looking fully healthy. Also don't be surprised if he is off running again...and he is for sure good for at least 1-2 OF Assists. Note to DBacks - don't run on him!

Prediction: Cubs win in 4





NLCS Prediction: I'm sticking with my Cubbies to defeat the Philadelphia Phillies in 7 games


WORLD SERIES PREDICTION: This is the year folks. There is not as much mystique with Cubs/Sox as there could have been in 2003, but nonetheless, the historic ballparks will be on full display as the Chicago Cubs defeat the Boston Red Sox in 6 games, finishing it all at Wrigley Field!

2007 ALDS Playoff Predictions

Here it goes folks, my 2007 AL Playoff Predictions:

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim vs Boston Red Sox



Theme: Past Performance Really Matters
Season Series: BOS won 6 - 4 (7 @ Fenway, 3 @ Anaheim)
Key Player: John Lackey (LAA SP)

Analysis:

In this series, I really do think that the history between these 2 teams in 2007 will matter. But I do think the history I am talking about goes even deeper than just the 6-4 record that the Red Sox own vs the Angels this year.

John Lackey is downright awful against the Red Sox, especially at Fenway. Lackey is 1-4 lifetime at Fenway. In his last 11 innings at Fenway he has given up 19 ERs (15.5 ERA). Lackey is set to pitch game 1 at Fenway and quite possibly game 5 if necessary at Fenway. That spells disaster for the Angels. On top of the Fenway problems, look at these statistics of some Red Sox hitters vs Lackey:

Manny Ramirez: .435 BA, 4HR, 11RBI, in 23 ABs
David Ortiz: .385 BA
JD Drew: .455 BA
Kevin Youkilis: .300 BA
Dustin Pedroia: .333 BA

John Lackey will be pitching 2 games vs BOS in this series, and I think they will both be losses...especially since his opponent in both is likely Josh Beckett. Let's look at his splits vs the Angels. Beckett is a career 2-0 vs the Angels with a 2.16 ERA. He has done well against the big LAA batters:

Vlad Guererro: .217 BA
Orlando Cabrera: .281 BA
Garrett Anderson: .400 BA (limited ABs)
Gary Matthews Jr: .167 BA
Chone Figgins: .125 BA

Josh Beckett will easily defeat John Lackey in 1 or more games and the Red Sox will not have a problem winning at least one other game. Analysts love to mention how tough the starting rotation is for the Angels but I don't see it. Lackey is solid but we've mentioned his problems against Boston. Kelvim Escobar, I don't see him doing well here. I just don't care for him much. Jered Weaver? No experience, I again, don't put much faith in him. The Red Sox can roll out any combination of Beckett, DiceK, Schilling, Wakefield, Lester, and the list keeps going. Whomever does not start is sure to be a big part of middle relief when needed. I think Boston has a huge advantage with their pitching. But the Angels are scrappy and have a lot of speed. The only way the Angels compete is to get superman performances from Lackey, Escobar, and Weaver and to get guys on base early and terrorize the base paths. It could happen, but I say it won't.

Prediction: Red Sox win in 4 games.







New York Yankess vs Cleveland Indians




Theme: Ignore the Numbers
Season Series: NYY won 6 - 0
Key Player: Fausto Carmona (CLE SP)

Analysis:

In a complete 180 degree turn from my first playoff matchup, I am going to tell you to look away from the numbers here. There is a lot of information pointing to the Yankees to win easily. This series with the extra rest is going to be decided based on the performances of Chien Ming Wang, Andy Pettitte, C.C. Sabathia, and Fausto Carmona. Let's look at some numbers.

First of all, the Yankees won all 6 regular season matchups, but did not face Sabathia this year. That is an advantage for the Indians. Chien Ming Wang is 1-1 in his career vs. the Indians. He had one poor outing and one dominant outing. Among active Indians players, they combine for a .228 BA against Wang. The Yankees are 10-4 on the road this year when Wang starts the game. Wang will start Game 1 on the road and likely Game 4 at Yankee Stadium.

Andy Pettitte is 1-0 with a 2.45 ERA against the Indians this year. Active Indian players bat .233 vs Pettitte in their careers. In 135 plate appearances, only 5 times have active Indian players gotten an extra base hit off him with no homeruns. Johnny Peralta is the only Indian to have shown any remote success off of Pettitte. The Yankees are 10-9 on the road in games Pettitte has started.

Wang and Pettitte will pitch 4 of the 5 games if necessary and the numbers look dominant.

On the other side of the field, C.C. Sabathia and Fausto Carmona will be trying to take down the Evil Empire. Sabathia posts a .277 BA against active Yankees in his career with Jeter hitting .545 and A-Rod hitting .412. The Indians are 14-5 at home when C.C. takes the mound.

Carmona is 0-2 against the Yankees this year with a 4.15 ERA in the two outings. He was 19-8 on the season, 2 of those losses to the Yankees. The Yankee active players post a .268 BA against Carmona and again Jeter has done the best with Melky Cabrera also showing good numbers. A-Rod however has hit a measley .143 vs Carmona. The Indians are 13-4 at home when Carmona pitches. It is quite possible Carmona will pitch both Game 2 and Game 5 at home.

The numbers are over whelmingly in the Yankees favor. I think the Yankees have the better bullpen, more experience, and have been blazing hot in the second half. But deep down inside I feel the Indians to get this done. If for nothing else because the numbers look so stacked against them. I like Sabathia a lot in this series and if Carmona can shake the jitters of the prime time matchup, I see the Indians squeaking out a 5 game win.

Prediction: Indians win in 5 games.




ALCS Early Prediction: I'll take the Red Sox to beat the Indians in 6 games. If that matchup occurs I'll break down the specific reasons later....and if that matchup doesn't occur, I'll break down whatever the matchup is.

Week 4 NFL Recap - Bloodbath

I was feeling good about myself early on as I got a few upsets correct....I just didn't realize how many upsets there would be. Just plain awful. This again is why I am very glad that no actual money is involved with this fun test. I went 5-9 on the week, reaching a season to date record of: 26-32-4 AWFUL!

OAK (+4) @ MIA
ATL (+4) vs HOU
BAL (-6)** @ CLE
CHI (-3) @ DET
MIN (+3) vs GB
STL (+14) @ DAL
BUF (+4) vs NYJ
CAR (-3) vs TB
SF (+3) vs SEA
PIT (-7) @ ARI
SD (-11) vs KC
IND (-9.5) vs DEN
PHI (-3.5) @ NYG
NE (-7.5)** @ CIN

**Two-team parlay pick

MLB Playoff Predictions

I plan to deliver my MLB Playoff Predictions as soon as the play-in game is complete so look for those sometime before Wednesday. But until then let me give my thoughts on tonight...

My pick is the Padres. I know the game is in Coors Field, giving the Rockies a slight offensive edge, but Jake Peavy is downright disgusting this year. He carried my fantasy team to another championship this year and he'll be going for win #20. He has won the NL Pitching Triple Crown and is a lock for the Cy Young. I expect him to cool down the Rockie's hitters and win in a close game. My call is 3-1 Padres. Check back in for the rest later.


GO CUBS GO!

1969 Redemption!

Ha Ha New York Mets. You had this one coming! While the Chicago Cubs held one of the worst end of season collapses that I am aware of (8.5 game lead on August 14) in 1969, eventually losing out to the New York Mets....the 2007 Mets blew that record out of the water. A 7 game lead with 17 games to play. CHOKE CITY.

Now that we have reversed the 1969 Curse, its time to reverse all the curses.

GO CUBS GO!