2007 NLDS Predictions

Colorado Rockies vs Philadelphia Phillies



Theme: Runs Wild!
Season Series: COL won 4 - 3
Key Player(s): The Mashers (Rollins, Utley, Burrell, Howard vs Tulowitzki, Helton, Holliday, Atkins)

Analysis:

Who really knows in this series? Probably the most difficult for me to predict of the 4 DS series. Here are two teams that absolutely mash the ball in ballparks that see incredible amounts of offense. I know the humidor "reduces offense" in Coors but I don't buy it. I think its more of the fact that Colorado has finally staffed their rotation with guys who can pitch well in that environment. Philadelphia? Well, Citizen's Bank Park is just not fair. So its the obvious thing to say that this series will be decided by offense or lack there of. Both teams have been known to go into dry spells, but I can not think of two hotter teams in baseball over the past 30 days. Both are extremely scary and capable of winning it all. When it's all said and done, I think the slight edge in this series goes to the Phillies and here is why:

1. They have 3 home games. The Phillies are 47-34 at home while the Rockies are 39-42 on the road.

2. Jeff Francis is awful against the Phillies and he could face them in Game 1 and Game 5. Francis was a stellar 17-9 with 4.22 ERA in 2007. But he is 0-1 vs the Phillies this year with a 15.12 ERA in 8+ innings. The single game he pitched at Citizen's Bank Park, he was lit up for a 21.60 ERA. Active Phillies players bat a combined .451 against Francis in their careers, including Rollins at .556, Rowand at .750, and Howard at .400. The only significant player Francis has had success against is Chase Utley (.200 BA).

3. Cole Hamels. This kid is electric and he appears to be healthy again. He did not face the Rockies this year and I think that will benefit him. His changeup is among the best in the league and could even give left handed hitters like Helton and Hawpe trouble.

4. Starting Rotations - Francis and Hamels could be considered equal (although we've laid out Francis' struggles in #2. After the game 1 the pitching matchups will likely be: Jimenez vs Kendrick, Fogg vs Moyer, and Morales vs Lohse...or some combination thereof. I think I would take the 3 Phillies starters over the 3 Rockie starters. But watch Ubaldo Jimenez, that kid is nasty. If the Rockies are down 2-1, I'd bet Francis comes out for Game 4 on short rest.

5. I like the Phillies bullpen currently. Brett Myers and Tom Gordon have been worked really hard in September, but they have been brilliant. The Rockies bullpen is strong as well, but I like the veterans in the Phillies bullpen to get it down. However, in their careers, Todd Helton (.444 BA) and Garrett Atkins (.429 BA) have had a ton of success against Brett Myers. So maybe the Rockies can steal a game late. They proved it against Hoffman, they can surely get to Myers.

Prediction: Phillies win in 5 games





Chicago Cubs vs Arizona Diamondbacks




Theme: The Mirage Disappears
Season Series: ARI won 4 - 2
Key Player(s): Alfonso Soriano

Analysis:

And finally to the series that I will be glued to at every minute. There is no hiding that I am a die hard Cubs fan and therefore perhaps my prediction will be biased in their favor...but there are all kinds of numbers we have to look at.

The DBacks were outscored this year, yet somehow they are 18 games over .500. The only team that was ever outscored in a season and actually won a playoff game was the 1987 Twins, and they won the World Series. The DBacks have done it with solid pitching and close games all year. Then they occasionally get blown out to hurt their run differential. Well I think the mask is coming off, the mirage is disappearing, these DBacks are going down. The DBacks have the worst offense in the playoffs, sporting a .250 BA and 712 runs scored. The Cubs in comparison batted .271 and scored 752 runs. Both teams roll out phenomenal pitching staffs, both starters and bullpens. The Cubs have a 4.04 ERA compared to the DBacks at 4.13 ERA. Marmol, Howry, Wood, and Dempster are quite formidable as is Pena, Lyon, and Valverde.

Game 1 will start tonight with Carlos Zambrano vs Brandon Webb. Really is a toss up. Which Zambrano will show up? Will Webb be the extremely dominant pitcher that he showed in July and August with that incredible scoreless inning streak? Or will he be hittable as he was in the last few weeks. I think he is tired and the Cubs bats will get to him. Cubs players hit a combined .235 vs Webb but that should increase. Carlos Zambrano? Well thankfully he is on the road in which he displayed a 12-4 mark this year with a 3.06 ERA. Compare that with a 6-9, 4.96 ERA at home and its obvious he is more comfortable away from Wrigley. The DBacks do have a combined .281 BA against Carlos, but that is mostly due to Chad Tracy hitting .800 against him (and he is on the DL).

Game 2 will feature Ted Lilly vs Doug Davis. At first glance I sigh cause it feels like Doug Davis has been a Cub killer. But the numbers don't really support that. Alfonso Soriano bats .357 against Davis, Matt Murton .400, and Ryan Theriot .667. Lee and Ramirez have not had as much success and perhaps that will hurt us. Meanwhile, Ted Lilly has perhaps been the Cubs MVP this year. He is about as steady as it comes sporting almost identical numbers at home and on the road. DBacks hitters only muster a .217 BA against him in their careers. Eric Byrnes is the only one with decent numbers at .286 and 1 HR.

Game 3 is where I actually think this series will ultimately be decided. Its most likely Rich Hill vs. Livan Hernandez. Livan is a big game pitcher and that is concerning, but lets run through his numbers for this series. In his career against current Cub hitters in their careers, the Cubs bat .309 against him (and that includes our pitching staff as hitters). Floyd (.341), Kendall (.355), Ramirez (.385), DeRosa (.385), Ward (.462) have all lit Livan up. Look for him to make an early exit in Game 3. Rich Hill has been good of late and I hope that continues. DBack hitters are hitting him for only .226 but Jackson, Byrnes, and Hudson all post +.300 BAs against him. If Hill falters, watch for a quick hook with Jason Marquis in the wings. If for nothing else, the DBacks will have some righties in the lineup that Marquis will be able to take advantage of. Marquis has really been faltering down the stretch, but he came up huge all year in tough situations. DBack hitters fare really poorly against Marquis in their careers at a dismal .189 mark.

Game 4 currently lists Zambrano vs Owings. The Cubs win that game as long as they don't pitch to Owings - .333 BA in 60 ABs with 4 HRs. Zambrano vs Owings...now that could be a hitting pitcher's clinic. Webb could go on short rest and surely will if the DBacks find themselves down 2-1. I could also see the Cubs going with Jason Marquis in Game 4 if they are up 2-1 with a quick hook. If Marquis were to do well, the Cubs could be setup nicely for the NLCS with Zambrano and Lilly starting it off.

Ultimately, I can not really find any numbers to support the DBacks having an edge with the exception that they were the best team in the NL in 2007 and they have home field advantage....if you want to call it that. The Cubs get more support in Arizona than anywhere not named Milwaukee or Cincinnati. I picked Alfonso Soriano to be a key player. There are not any specific numbers, but the guy is smoking hot right now and looking fully healthy. Also don't be surprised if he is off running again...and he is for sure good for at least 1-2 OF Assists. Note to DBacks - don't run on him!

Prediction: Cubs win in 4





NLCS Prediction: I'm sticking with my Cubbies to defeat the Philadelphia Phillies in 7 games


WORLD SERIES PREDICTION: This is the year folks. There is not as much mystique with Cubs/Sox as there could have been in 2003, but nonetheless, the historic ballparks will be on full display as the Chicago Cubs defeat the Boston Red Sox in 6 games, finishing it all at Wrigley Field!